Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.033915 0.038617 0.043760 0.049806 0.056725 0.064402 0.073576
2025-02-02 0.027184 0.033724 0.041533 0.051564 0.064137 0.079414 0.099445
2025-02-09 0.023594 0.031010 0.040406 0.053222 0.070316 0.092423 0.123335
2025-02-16 0.020365 0.028045 0.038252 0.052875 0.073395 0.101326 0.142504
2025-02-23 0.018121 0.025981 0.036871 0.053150 0.077026 0.111012 0.163503
2025-03-02 0.016047 0.023840 0.035042 0.052430 0.078958 0.118256 0.181536
2025-03-09 0.014810 0.022736 0.034521 0.053464 0.083441 0.129529 0.206688
2025-03-16 0.013386 0.021172 0.033109 0.052917 0.085325 0.136877 0.226324
2025-03-23 0.012662 0.020603 0.033143 0.054595 0.090838 0.150410 0.257405
2025-03-30 0.011335 0.018922 0.031221 0.052851 0.090467 0.154160 0.272201
2025-04-06 0.010372 0.017741 0.029994 0.052115 0.091673 0.160592 0.292237
2025-04-13 0.009309 0.016285 0.028161 0.050134 0.090456 0.162600 0.304361
2025-04-20 0.008967 0.016073 0.028477 0.052040 0.096506 0.178388 0.344293
2025-04-27 0.008633 0.015842 0.028739 0.053877 0.102630 0.194972 0.387787
2025-05-04 0.008310 0.015598 0.028946 0.055613 0.108707 0.212040 0.434173
2025-05-11 0.007740 0.014834 0.028111 0.055250 0.110616 0.221125 0.465205
2025-05-18 0.007305 0.014287 0.027636 0.055537 0.113835 0.233117 0.503692
2025-05-25 0.006790 0.013536 0.026694 0.054784 0.114817 0.240569 0.533135
2025-06-01 0.006520 0.013251 0.026647 0.055866 0.119761 0.256836 0.584082
2025-06-08 0.006101 0.012625 0.025855 0.055293 0.121060 0.265336 0.618199
2025-06-15 0.005940 0.012523 0.026133 0.057050 0.127668 0.286221 0.683875
2025-06-22 0.005465 0.011709 0.024843 0.055224 0.125991 0.288164 0.704048
2025-06-29 0.005121 0.011152 0.024056 0.054455 0.126664 0.295576 0.738550